ONTARIO, Calif. -- The Inland Empire’s regional economy is currently among the strongest in the state and nation, but recession may be on the horizon – these were among the insights delivered during the 2023 State of the Region on March 30 in Ontario, co-hosted by the Inland Empire Economic Partnership and San Antonio Regional Hospital.

Representatives of Small Business Development Corporation of Orange County, a silver-level sponsor of the event, heard reports on the difficult challenges facing the regional healthcare delivery system and San Antonio hospital, as well as the hospital’s expansion plans. The centerpiece event, a keynote forecast by the economic partnership’s chief economist, Manfred Keil countered predictions of other inland economists: based on historical data trends, economic models and technological advancements, Keil believes that a recession will occur in the near term.

“One thing we do well in this region is that we recognize the sector is built on the small business.” — Karen Spiegel, Riverside County Second District Supervisor.

Keil is also an associate professor of economics at the Robert Day School of Economics and Finance at Claremont McKenna College. “Forecasting at the moment is tricky,” Keil told the audience at the Ontario Convention Center. “What I want to do is take you with me and show you why I think the economy is going to go into a recession.”

Keil presented slides showing historic economic trends that led to past recessions with similar patterns currently occurring as the nation’s economic expansion winds down. He cited various predictors and economic variables and noted that the inland region’s heavy dependence on the logistics industry poses a potential economic weakness as the sector faces threats from environmental groups as well as development of new technologies and automation. Diversifying the region’s economy with higher wage, white-collar industries, an effort that requires critical input from educational systems, is imperative, he said.

Left to right: Fontana Mayor Acquanetta Warren, Riverside Mayor Patricia Lock Dawson, San Bernardino County Third District Supervisor Dawn Rowe, San Bernardino Mayor Helen Tran, Riverside County Second District Supervisor Karen Spiegel, and panel moderator Kimberly Guimarin, senior editor with the Southern California News Group.

To conclude the forecast event, a panel of five city and county officials discussed their thoughts on actions that can be taken to address economic weaknesses and threats, and current strengths including the creation of job centers, targeted education programs and support for small businesses. They also cited the ongoing need for skills training for those who are not college-bound, including the need for health care workers, and the importance of local funding control. The panel was moderated by Kimberly Guimarin, senior editor with the Southern California News Group.

“We have a really large cluster of universities and community colleges,” said Riverside Mayor Patricia Lock Dawson. “[And] the amount of venture capital per founder is incredibly high in our region.”

“One thing we do well in this region is that we recognize the sector is built on the small business,” said Karen Spiegel, Riverside County Second District Supervisor.  “Our bread and butter is the small businesses, small means under 100 employees. We have some great entrepreneurial resources.”

Toward breaking down barriers, “we should be speaking out more as mayors, supervisors different elected officials,” said Fontana Mayor Acquanetta Warren, noting Fontana’s Mayor’s Education Coalition designed to create career opportunities for students.

Dawn Rowe, San Bernardino County Third District Supervisor cited the “cradle-to-career” process that brings businesses into schools toward inspiring career interests.

The forecast event provided insights that are valuable to Small Business Development Corporation of Orange County and its future growth plans, said Michael A. Ocasio, president and chief executive officer. Should an economic recession occur, the corporation’s capital access programs, in particular the state’s Small Business Loan Guarantee program will prove a lifeline for many small ventures, particularly those in vulnerable communities.

“We stand at the ready to aid our small businesses at all times, because these ventures, operated by courageous and hardworking individuals, are vital to the wellbeing of the economy of the Inland Empire and the state,” Ocasio said.

Left to right, back to front: Ontario Mayor Paul S. Leon and wife Cheryl Leon; Rhonesia Perry, Fontana economic development analyst, Fontana Mayor Acquanetta Warren, and San Bernardino County Third District Supervisor Dawn Rowe.